🍺 Tree Beer Pong Simulator - The Science of Drinking

⚙️ Opponent's Skills (Set Their Accuracy)

👊 Hit Accuracy (% of shots that land in ANY cup)

Blind 🙈 Sniper 🎯

10%

🎯 Sink Rate (% of hits that go IN vs rim)

Rim 🏀 Splash 💦

🍺 Cup Size Factor

Shot 🥃 Bucket 🪣

100%

🎮 Live Game Animation

Miss

Hit (½ beer)

Sink (full beer)

🔥 Monte Carlo Heat Map (50 Shots)

🎲 Simulation Count

10 500

Sinks

Hits

Misses

0/11

Cups Out

Beers

🧠 Double-Fault Penalty Calculator

The Scenario: Opponent missed two serves (ball off table twice). YOU choose their punishment:

Option A: Remove a half-full cup entirely (fewer targets)
Option B: Wound a full cup to half (cup stays, but damaged)

🍺 Projected Drunkeness Level

Sober 😇 Tipsy 😊 Drunk 🥴 Wasted 🤪 Legend 👑

Calculating optimal strategy...

📜 Tree Rules (For the Uninitiated)

🔺 The Setup: A pyramid of cups (1-2-3-4) plus one "stump" cup 4 inches from the edge
🏓 The Swing: Hit the ball with a paddle, must arc at least 1.5 meters high
🎯 Scoring: SINK = full beer, cup removed | HIT = half beer, 2nd hit removes cup
⚠️ Double Fault: Miss serve twice (off table) = opponent picks your punishment!
🤔 The Question: Should you remove a half cup OR wound a full cup to half?

📊 The Math Behind the Madness

The Two Strategies:

🥤 Option A: Remove the Half Cup

10 cups remain (down from 11)
~9% smaller target area
You save 0.5 beers immediately
Reduces ALL future hit probability

🍺 Option B: Wound the Full Cup

11 cups remain (one wounded)
Full target area preserved
Opponent drinks 0.5 NOW
Wounded cup clears on next hit

🎯 The Counterintuitive Truth:

Option B ("wound the cup") sounds clever — you get guaranteed beer NOW and the wounded cup clears faster. But the math almost never favors it.

Why? Having 11 targets vs 10 is a ~10% increase in surface area. Even against terrible players, that extra cup gets hit occasionally. The 0.5 beer "penalty" you extracted doesn't offset the increased exposure over 50+ swings.

The only scenario where B wins: At extremely low accuracy (2-3% hit rate), the difference becomes statistically negligible — flip a coin. But if there's ANY meaningful accuracy, Option A wins.

Bottom Line: The conventional wisdom is correct. Always remove the cup.